The global crises Andy Burnham cannot escape
The PM-in-waiting will find himself stretched between Manchester, Westminster and the international stage
Good morning.
In our magazine this week, John Bew, former No 10 adviser and professor of history and foreign policy at King’s College London, writes about the domestic and international crises Andy Burnham will face on entering Downing Street.
You can read the piece here. If you’re not subscribed, you can have full access for £1 a week here.
Read an extract below:
Every new government likes to develop its own foreign policy identity. But the requirements of national and economic security in today’s world should caution Burnham’s team from lurching towards simple-sounding answers to complex problems. The UK is not well-served by an international arena in which big blocs assert themselves through the tools of economic statecraft such as tariffs, dumping, export controls and import screening. For that reason, the full implications of pursuing our own form of blocism via a prioritisation of a European agenda in these areas has to be thoroughly tested – the more so because any such reset is restricted by Labour’s own manifesto commitments and quite hard to imagine yielding significant results in time for the next general election.
Added to this are political trends that are difficult to anticipate. Right now you would get reasonable odds on the Democrats looking ascendant from November. Meanwhile Marine Le Pen’s National Rally is leading in the race for the presidency of France. In Germany, Friedrich Merz, a willing partner for the UK, is struggling badly. But in any case, the really clever thinking in Europe – from key capitals to Nato and the EU Commission – is geared towards a recalibration and renegotiation of the entire transatlantic relationship. It might take years to come to fruition but it is far more sensible than succumbing to the mandate of the arsonists who want to burn it all down.
If there is an advantage to Burnham not doing as much international diplomacy, it may be that some of the emotion is removed from these debates. With a less lawyerly government, one may also get less theologising about international law and more grunt work to make it work for the interests of British people. What is needed is something unsentimental, painstaking, discreet and cognisant of the fact that the desirable answer may not always be attainable – or that the popular position may sometimes grind up against the long-term national interest. There is a small window to get this right.
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A really useful analysis, thankyou.